Small Band of Economists
Trumpet Sports Betting for Insights
By JUSTIN LAHART
January 7, 2008; Page A2
New Orleans
Academic economists got a clue that this year's meeting of the American Economic Association would be different when Louisiana State University's football team -- in town for today's championship game against Ohio State -- streamed through the lobby of the main conference hotel. As economists gathered Friday to discuss papers on business cycles, the evolution of checks and the factors that make for good schools, the LSU Tigers belted out "The Star-Spangled Banner" over breakfast nearby.
Sports and academia don't always mix. But a small band of economists are carefully examining sports and sports betting because of the unique opportunity it gives them to see how people respond to incentives: The games are straightforward, the participants are intimately familiar with the rules, and the desire to win is intense.
"We can use sports to answer this interesting economic question: Do people behave rationally?" says Christopher Adams, a Federal Trade Commission economist.
This weekend, Mr. Adams challenged a 2006 paper by David Romer of the University of California at Berkeley that had argued football coaches aren't always rational in deciding to punt on fourth down. (See more on Mr. Romer.)
Because a football team loses the ball if it can't advance it at least 10 yards in four plays, "or downs," a team that's short of yardage on fourth down must decide whether to risk trying to gain the missing ground. Most often, it pursues safer options such as punting the ball downfield, in hopes of leaving its opponents in a less favorable position, or kicking the ball for a field goal, which scores fewer points.
Since there are relatively few cases of a football team "going for it" on fourth down, Mr. Romer used third-down statistics to make his case. He assumed, for example, that a team's chances of moving the ball three yards on fourth down would be the same as they were on a third-down play.
With members of the Ohio State Marching Band sprawled outside the door, Mr. Adams argued that Mr. Romer's analysis might not have adequately captured differences between third- and fourth-down situations.
Mr. Adams also relied on third-down data, but his model decreased the relative value of a pass vs. a running play for a fourth-down situation. That made going for it on fourth down seem less wise than Mr. Romer's study suggested and indicated that coaches might be acting rationally by seldom doing so. In truth, according to Mr. Adams, without more actual fourth-down data there's no way to know.
Other economists looked to sports wagering for insight into the age-old question of how effectively markets respond to new information. It's a difficult puzzle to solve by studying traditional financial markets, partly because it's hard to determine when new information enters the market. Some insiders, for example, might act on prior knowledge of an impending takeover, information other market participants don't have.
Using simulated markets -- with student volunteers as traders -- is also problematic. The payoff is too slim for the subjects to feel like they have any skin in the game, and they may not understand the market well enough to behave rationally.
But TradeSports, an online market where investors bet on the outcome of sporting and other events by buying and selling futures contracts, sidesteps some of these problems.
Ricard Gil, an economist at the University of California at Santa Cruz, and University of Chicago economist Steven Levitt, co-author of the best seller "Freakonomics," analyzed the price movement in TradeSports contracts on 2002 World Cup soccer matches to see how quickly prices reacted when goals were scored. Not only were there no insiders in this case, but the market participants probably were well-versed in the game and had money riding on the outcome.
The relative infrequency of goals in soccer also meant that each one was a major factor in deciding the match.
Messrs. Levitt and Gil found that the odds of a team winning jumped immediately after it scored a goal. But adjusting for other factors, those odds kept climbing for 10 to 15 minutes after the goal was scored -- a sign of market inefficiency. That might have been because TradeSports, which is based in Ireland, was new in 2002 and betting on the World Cup was thin.
Justin Wolfers, an economist at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton school, looked at betting on the 2006 World Cup on Betfair, an online market with heavier trading and far more European participants, giving it a higher proportion of soccer fans. Trading responded more quickly to goals.
Messrs. Gil and Levitt also found that when underdogs scored a goal, market participants tended to underestimate their chances of eventually winning the match -- a sign that that bettors were biased toward favorites.
Mr. Wolfers raised hackles at the National Basketball Association last year when he and Joe Price, now at Brigham Young University, argued that National Basketball Association statistics showed that referees called fewer fouls on players of their own race. In a coming paper with BYU economist Tim Larsen, Mr. Price and Mr. Wolfers looked at historical betting spreads on NBA games and found that a betting strategy that exploited referees' same-race biases would have systematically made money for the 14 seasons from 1991 to 2005. (See the paper.)
That the spreads didn't adjust for a referee's bias toward his own race suggests that the betting market -- which is very good at factoring in intangibles like home-court advantage -- isn't entirely efficient.
As for today's game, TradeSports puts the odds of LSU beating Ohio State at about 60%. If the tendency of market participants to be biased toward the favorite in the World Cup favorites extends to American college football, those odds are too steep. Mr. Wolfers isn't betting, but said he was rooting for LSU. A cost-benefit analysis of what can happen when you cheer loudly for Ohio State in New Orleans suggests that's a rational thing to do.
Write to Justin Lahart at justin.lahart@wsj.com
Copyright (c) Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved
College Football Notebook | Neuheisel full of promises and humor at UCLA
Tuesday, January 1, 2008 - Page updated at 12:00 AM
The Associated Press
LOS ANGELES - Mixing solemn promises with sprinkles of humor, Rick Neuheisel walked back onto the UCLA campus as the new football coach.
"We're going to have two rules. One rule is to get the job done, no matter what it takes," the former Bruins quarterback said. "The second rule is to enjoy each other's company and laugh every day, because this is a special, unique place."
Among his promises were not to do anything to tarnish the school's reputation.
His previous head-coaching stints at Colorado and Washington were marked by winning records - and turmoil.
He went 33-14 from 1995-98 at Colorado but, after he left for Washington, the Buffaloes were placed on two years of probation for recruiting infractions that occurred on his watch. He had a 33-16 record at Washington and guided the Huskies to the Rose Bowl in 2000, but he was fired in 2003 for participating in a betting pool on the NCAA basketball tournament and lying to school administrators.
He sued for wrongful termination and settled in 2005 with UW and the NCAA for $4.5 million, and eventually was cleared by the NCAA in the betting scandal.
The 46-year-old Neuheisel acknowledges his mistakes.
"I was a young coach when I got the job at age 33, and maybe in an effort to prove that I belonged to the older peer group, I did some things that probably weren't necessary in an effort to try to compete and show everybody I was going to outhustle them," he said.
"I can't change the past, but I can learn from the past."
He said he comes into the new role with the Bruins feeling calm because of his experience in leading programs at Colorado and Washington, and noted how he wasn't quite so confident when he first came to Westwood as a walk-on quarterback.
Recalling a game of catch with another player, Neuheisel said, "I was a little nervous that he was throwing a much better spiral than I was."
He grinned and added, "And he was a tight end."
Tight spirals or not, Neuheisel became the Bruins' starting quarterback and was the most valuable player of their 45-9 upset of Illinois in the 1984 Rose Bowl.
NOTES
- Arkansas' Darren McFadden will play in the Cotton Bowl today after the university reviewed a media report linking the All-American running back and an agent to the purchase of a vehicle and found no reason to make him ineligible.
- Oklahoma defensive tackle DeMarcus Granger will miss the Fiesta Bowl after being sent home following an arrest for shoplifting. Granger, a starter, was arrested Saturday in Tempe, Ariz., after he tried to steal a jacket from the Burlington Coat Factory inside Arizona Mills Mall, Tempe police reported. A 307-pound run stuffer, Granger had recorded 35 tackles to tie for the most among the Sooners' defensive linemen.
- Longtime Hampton coach Joe Taylor became the new head coach at Florida A&M. At Hampton, Taylor had a 136-49-1 record in 16 seasons.
Copyright (c) 2008 The Seattle Times Company
Trenton should help AC get sports betting
With revenues in Atlantic City declining, it's time to bring sports betting to casinos.
Since legalized gambling came to Atlantic City 29 years ago, casino revenues have risen every year. Because of that, more than 40,000 casino jobs exist, and out-of-state visitors have pumped billions into New Jersey's economy.
But revenues are down by and large at Atlantic City's 11 casinos this year, for the first time ever. It's no coincidence that this is the first year Pennsylvania has had slot machines at racetracks and a freestanding casino in the Poconos that recently opened.
If Atlantic City is to beat its Pennsylvania competition, it must offer attractions its competitors cannot. In 2008, state lawmakers must give serious consideration to taking the necessary steps to allow sports gambling in Atlantic City, cutting through regulations that limit how casinos can operate beach bars and restaurants and generally making it easier for casinos to expand their operations.
Through Nov. 4, gamblers at the six slot facilities now open in Pennsylvania had wagered $10 billion since the first slots in the Keystone State opened last November. Most of those wagers probably would have happened in Atlantic City two years ago. Likewise, those gamblers didn't spend money on food, hotel rooms and other services in Atlantic City, depriving New Jersey's economy of more money.
And the amount wagered in Pennsylvania is sure to increase in 2008 as more slot parlors open in the state. Eventually, two casinos will be built in Philadelphia on the Delaware River, a stone's throw from New Jersey.
Sports gambling has been a fixture in Nevada casinos for years. It's time to make it legal here. As the recent break-up of an illegal sports betting operation in the Borgata poker room illustrates, there is a market for wagering on pro and college football, basketball and other games. But people shouldn't have to turn to shady bookmakers with mob connections, especially in a casino where other forms of gambling are perfectly legal.
Having sports gambling in the casinos would lure people who might not otherwise make the drive to Atlantic City. It would pump millions more dollars into the regional economy and probably create casino jobs.
It's time for state lawmakers and New Jersey's representatives in Washington to broach the subject of what it will take to alter federal gambling laws and allow New Jersey to become the fifth state with legal sports gambling.
The state, particularly the Department of Environmental Protection, must also look at easing regulations on how casinos can expand restaurants, bars and dance clubs on the beach. The beach is perhaps the city's best asset and something that even Las Vegas cannot offer. The casinos need to be allowed to make more use of the beach.
Three more mega-resorts are on the way in Atlantic City, a good sign that casino operators see a potential for increased tourism in the city. Our elected officials can help lure more out-of-state tourists by helping Atlantic City's casinos offer gaming and entertainment options that no racetrack slot parlor can.
Copyright (c)2007 Courier-Post. All rights reserved.
Is the Media Promoting Gambling on the Bowl Games
Bradley Beach, NJ 07720
December 4 2007
If you are doing a story on the COLLEGE BOWL GAMES you might want to look at betting on the games and the issue of compulsive gambling.
I wonder how many college students will have a bet on the games and whether or not some athletes also have bets on the games as well.
It is easier to place a bet than it is to buy cigarettes or a can of beer on college campuses all over the country.
With all the Bowl Games being played and the media hype about odds and betting lines there is an explosion of betting on these games.
You would not expect to open your local newspaper and get a price list of illegal drugs for sale; But that's just about what you can get today when you open your local newspaper to the sports pages all over the country. True, you don't see drug prices but you do see lines and point spreads on sporting events. Illegal drugs can't be bought, legally in any state. You can't place a legal bet in America, except in Las Vegas.
There are ads in newspapers for 800 and 900 numbers that sell information to gamblers. Some of these ads read : "Get the game of the month free", "We pick 75% winners", "Last week we went 11 for 12", and " Get our lock of the week".
I still can't believe that newspapers carry ads from these so called handicappers, who are really scandicappers. It's also interesting to note how often the information is incorrect.
I remember when Skip Ballis then of the Dallas Morning News had a gorilla in the Dallas Zoo make football picks for them. The gorillas' picks were doing better than the sports writers.
I think the responsible thing to do would be for newspapers and tv shows to - carry a public service message (Need Help For A Gambling Problem? Call: 1-888 LAST BET).
Picture the following scenario: A young man uses the lines and odds from his local newspaper and uses it to set up a bookmaking operation in the local town pub. A law officer comes in and arrests the bookmaker and players. The next day the headline in the paper says: "John Doe Arrested For Bookmaking and Hank Smith Arrested For Illegally Betting". Hypocrisy you say? The very newspaper that carried the lines, now is carrying this headline.
Years ago i was on a TV show that Howard Cossell hosted (ABC Sports Beat). The topic was: Does the media encourage the public to gamble? Bobby Knight, Indiana basketball coach, said: "A newspaper who published point spreads should also publish names and addresses of services that render to prostitutes. They practically have the same legality in every one of our states, and I can't see why one is any better than the other." On the same show former baseball commissioner Bowie Kuhn said: "Anything that encourages gambling on team sports bothers me. We all look hypocritical but than why are we putting up the odds unless we are trying to encourage it." David Stern, NBA commissioner said: "We don't want the weeks' grocery money to be bet on the outcome of a particular sporting event."
I would like to pose a few questions:
- Do point spreads in newspapers cause a proliferation of gambling?
- Do people see point spreads in the newspaper and think it is legal to place a bet?
- Does the media entice people to gamble?
- Does the media have any responsibility for the increase in numbers of compulsive gamblers in America?
- Does the media give the appearance that it promotes and condones gambling?
Compulsive Gamblers are very vulnerable, at this time of the year, says Arnie Wexler.
The National Gambling Study Commission said that there are "5 million compulsive gamblers and 15 million at risk in U.S.".
Get the real scoop -- talk to Arnie Wexler who is one of the nations' leading experts on the subject of compulsive gambling and a recovering compulsive gambler himself, who placed his last bet on April 10, 1968.
He has worked with college & professional athletes who had gambling addictions. And has spoken on many college campuses over the years.He has been involved in helping compulsive gamblers for the last 39 years. Through the years, Wexler has spoken to more compulsive gamblers than anyone else in America.
Arnie has spoken to students who gamble in college day and night. They even gamble during class, and it even goes on in high school lunch rooms. According to a Harvard study a few years ago, 4.67% of young people have a gambling
problem. Experts tell us that the earlier a person starts to gamble, the greater the risk of them becoming a compulsive gambler. In another survey, 96% of adult male recovering gamblers stated that they started gambling before the age of 14.
Data from National Hot lines show:
Forty eight percent of the people who gamble, bet on sports.
33% of calls came from youth under 25 years of age
12% of calls came from senior citizens
40% of calls came from female gamblers
Anyone who needs help for a gambling problem can call our 24 hour national help line
1-888-LAST BET
Arnie is available to speak with you on this subject.
He and his wife Sheila have presented compulsive gambling workshops nationality and internationally. They run a national help line for gamblers seeking help..1-.888 LAST BET To call Arnie----954 788 3825 or his cell 954 501 5270
Arnie Wexler (aswexler@aol.com)
Arnie & Sheila Wexler Associates
213 3rd Ave.
Bradley Beach, NJ 07720
Phone : 954-7883825
Copyright (c) 2007 BIS Inc. All rights reserved.
Top-10 Gambling Events
29 October 2007
By Gary Trask
10.) New Year's Day
The saturation of bowl games (32 are scheduled this season) has limited the number of games played on Jan. 1, but this remains the college football bettor's apex moment. And with Las Vegas the hottest destination for New Year's Eve revelers, what better way to nurse your hangover than by heading to your hotel's sports book and betting and watching college football all day?
9.) Breeders' Cup
The first of three horse racing events to make our list, the Breeders' Cup is held at a different racetrack in North America during a weekend in October. Each race is worth at least $1 million, which helps draw the best competition in the world. With the addition of three races, this year's event, held at Monmouth Park in New Jersey, was expanded to a two-day format (Oct. 26 and 27) and culminated with the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic.
8.) World Championship of Online Poker (WCOOP)
In 2002, the top prize in the inaugural WCOOP main event was $64,450. In 2007, some 40,000 players representing more than 100 countries took part with more than $24,000,000 awarded in prizes, making the WCOOP one of the largest poker series in the world, online or offline.
7.) Dubai World Cup
Dubbed the world's richest horse race, the Dubai World Cup has been held annually at the Nad Al Sheba Race Course in Dubai since 1996. The prize money at the event has grown from $5 million in the inaugural race to $22 million this past year.
6.) Kentucky Derby
The Kentucky Derby represents the first jewel of horse racing's Triple Crown and is easily the most notorious of the trio. The very first race at Churchill Downs was run in 1875, giving "The Run for the Roses" plenty of history and tradition. Mint Julep anyone?
5.) World Cup of Cricket
U.S. residents may scoff at this making our list, but cricket ranks as one of the most popular sports in the world, particularly in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and the Bahamas and with that comes a fervent following of punters. The World Cup of Cricket is televised in more than 200 countries, which adds to the betting factor. The sport even endured its very own betting scandal back in 2000 when South African captain Hansie Cronje confessed to taking money from bookmakers.
4.) World Cup Soccer
Since it's a month long tournament, the World Cup may be the most heavily bet event as far as number of dollars wagered. It's held once every four years and draws millions of passionate fans and is watched by billions of people across the globe.
3.) World Series of Poker
In 1970 the first WSOP at Binion's Horseshoe took place with seven players. By 2006, it encompassed 45 tournaments and nearly 9,000 entrants. And with well over $100 million in prize money it became one of the richest events in all of sports. The popularity of the event has also helped poker become a true TV spectator sport.
2.) March Madness
Any event that can get the prudent, middle-aged secretary at your office to pony up $10 and fill out a bracket is worthy of a lofty ranking on our list. Sports book managers in Las Vegas agree that the first four days of the NCAA college basketball tournament are the busiest of the entire year. According to the Nevada Gaming Control Board, an estimated $13 million was wagered on the tourney last March. That figure, of course, doesn't count the pools played across the country that are typically won by a non-basketball fan that picks the games based on the coolest team mascots.
1.) Super Bowl Sunday
It has become a national holiday in America and, like the NCAA tournament, much of the Super Bowl's popularity is fueled by gambling, except the brackets are replaced with square pools. In addition, a record $94.5 million was wagered legally on Super Bowl XL in Nevada, according the Nevada Gaming Control Board, marking the fifth straight year that number had increased, up from $71.5 million in 2002. The reason for the increase may very well be the rising popularity of proposition bets, which allow you to wager on such items as the over/under of replay challenges, the coin flip, or whether the total points scored in the game will be higher or lower than the total of points and rebounds of LeBron James on that particular day.
Copyright (c) 2002-2007 Casino City, Inc. or its affiliates.
Local college football report, October 19
By B.G. Brooks (CU), Randy Holtz (CSU), Jim Benton (Air Force and Wyoming) and wire services (Wyoming)
October 19, 2007
Dizon makes first cut
Senior Jordon Dizon was among 10 semifinalists named Thursday for the prestigious Butkus Award, given annually to college football's top linebacker.
Dizon, the leading tackler in NCAA Division I-A (12.7 a game), has played all but 12 snaps this season (447 total) and has totaled 12 or more tackles in six of CU's seven games.
He has climbed to fifth in career tackles (377) at CU, and with a dozen third-down stops, is closing in on the seasonal school record (18). He finished with 17 in 2006.
Veteran CU linebacker coach Brian Cabral says Dizon is "probably the most complete, every-down player I've ever coached. He's the only player I've had start for . . . four years, which is a tremendous accomplishment. He's enjoying his best season as a Buffalo."
Crediting Cabral for his development, Dizon said being named a Butkus semifinalist is "definitely an honor, but it would mean more to win the Big 12 championship."
In with new Ralphie
CU plans to introduce Ralphie V next month as its new live mascot.
The younger buffalo will replace Ralphie IV, who was donated to CU by media mogul Ted Turner in 1998. The older buffalo likely will appear at some school functions aside from football games.
Ralphie V's first game-day run at Folsom Field could be at the final regular-season game, Nov. 23 against Nebraska.
Etc.
(c) 2007 The E.W. Scripps Co.
Tony T's Sports Bets TV Show Games To Be Previewed on Friday's Show
Tony T's Sports Bets TV Show Notes for This Weeks Episode.
Hollywood, CA (PRWEB) October 10, 2007 -- Join Tony T and his sidekick Erin Coscarelli as they break down the big TV games on Tony T's SportsBets TV Show airing live on http://vlaze.com/tonyt
Tune in at Vlaze.com on Friday at 5PM ET/2PM PT for the show and call in or IM with questions and sports bets for their "Bettors Window" segment of the show. The show re-airs Saturday and Sundays at 12PM ET/ 9AM PT.
Tony T's Sports Bets is interactive so Tony T will take your IM's and phone calls.
Here are the big TV games they will break down from a sports betting perspective with sports odds from sportsbooks on Friday's show. Tony will select 3 sports bets from both College and Pro Football's big TV games using sports betting odds from sportsbooks:
Show 6
October 12th 2007
College Football Games
Wisconsin @ Penn St (ABC)
Missouri @ Oklahoma (FSN
LSU @ Kentucky (CBS)
Washington @ Arizona St (FSN)
Oregon St @ CAL (VERSUS)
Purdue @ Michigan (Big 10 Network)
NFL Games
Washington @ Green Bay (FOX)
New England @ Dallas (CBS)
Tennessee @ Tampa Bay (CBS)
Oakland @ San Diego (CBS)
New Orleans @ Seattle (NBC Prime Time)
NY Giants @ Atlanta (ESPN Monday Night)
Video on Demand: Tony T's Sports Bets TV Show 10-5-07
Tony T lays down the sports odds and his sports bets for this weeks show. Click http://vlaze.com/tonyt to view this weeks show!!
About Tony T:
Tony T's Show Page at http://www.vlaze.com/tonyt
Tony T is the host of Tony T's Sports Bets TV Show airing live Fridays at Vlaze.com at 5PM ET/ 2PM PT. Tony T's job is to help his viewers pick winners when they make sports bets on Pro and College Football. Tony T is a life long Raiders fan but when he places sports bets on the Raider games he puts aside his passion for the silver and black. Most guys out there could care less about sports unless they can bet on it. Tony T helps to provide his viewers what they can't get from the radio and TV and that is an Interactive TV show that focuses on betting on College and Pro Football using sports betting odds from sportsbooks. Whether a big bettor or a small bettor is looking for help to fill out parlay cards, looking for sports bet odds from sportsbooks, nfl picks or college football picks or help filling out office pools and death pools check out Tony T live on Fridays at 5PM ET/2PM PT. Tony T will give out the sports odds for your sports bets from sportsbooks on his show. The show is interactive so Tony T will take phone calls. The show repeats on Saturdays and Sundays at 12PM ET/ 9AM PT to get his viewers ready right before kickoff.
There will be no talk of dog fighting, cat fighting or cock fighting because it really doesn't matter to sports fans. Tony T won't talk about who Tony Romo is dating this week because it really doesn't matter to sports fans.
The 4 most important questions football fans want answered are the following:
Should one lay the points?
Should one take the points?
Should one play the over?
Should one play the under?
This interactive TV show helps answer the 4 most important questions from sports fans. Visit Tony T's Sports Bets TV show by clicking: http://vlaze.com/tonyt
Tony T also gives out 3 nfl picks and 2 college football picks on his TV Show.
So before stepping up to the Las Vegas sportsbook betting window with sports bets, before filling out a parlay card, before putting a call into the man or before turning in an office pool check out Tony T's Sports Bets on Vlaze.com live Fridays at 5PM ET/2PM PT and repeats Saturday and Sunday at 12PM ET/9AM PT.
The show is available on Video on Demand by 11PM ET/ 8PM PT every Friday Night!!
Visit Tony T's Sportsbets TV show page by clicking: http://vlaze.com/tonyt
(c) Copyright 1997-2007, Vocus PRW Holdings, LLC.
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